|
Author(s)
|
Karen
Guttieri
Guttieri@nps.edu
Naval Postgraduate School
Alper
Caglayan
acaglayan@milcord.com
|
Abstract
Rumor - information that is unsubstantiated yet widely shared - is rife during social conflict, when information tends to be consequential but sketchy. Psychologically, rumors provide emotional outlet and relief from cognitive uncertainty in the midst of social upheaval, attributing cause and motivation. Rumors also frequently precede violent events.
Perception is known to play a role in rumor, but little is known about the mechanisms for it. Rumor shapes perception, and also depends upon some degree of perceived plausibility for acceptance and transmission. Drawing upon research on both perception and rumor, this paper investigates the nature and consequences of this dynamic. Empirically,
the research analyzes rumors reported in The Baghdad Mosquito after the United States-coalition invasion of Iraq in March 2003, mapping these against public opinion polling and timeline of events that includes both insurgency and inter-sectoral conflict. This project develops a subject typology to identify issue concerns of the Iraqi people and a motivation
typology to identify the role of basic sentiments and perceptions in relation to those issues. The study investigates the plausibility factor - the relationship between reported rumors and evidence in selected cases. The project analyzes rumors for trends, appending tags with spatiotemporal annotations to investigate causal predictability of
incidents. Finally, the paper concludes with foreign policy implications for the United States and domestic policy considerations for the Iraqi government.
|
